A rare November hurricane named Rafael is barreling toward the U.S., stirring up concern as it intensifies and charts a path through the Gulf of Mexico. Now a Category 2 storm with sustained winds of 110 mph, Rafael is making headlines as it heads northwest toward the U.S. coastline. The storm, currently located 130 miles south-southeast of Havana, could impact states along the Gulf Coast as early as this weekend, though its exact path remains uncertain.
Rafael is expected to brush Cuba, bringing heavy rain and hurricane-force winds to the Isle of Youth and western Cuba within hours. From there, it’s forecasted to move into the Gulf, where meteorologists are still debating its next steps. While some models suggest it could take aim at Louisiana, others indicate it might veer westward, reducing its impact on the U.S. Nonetheless, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping a close watch, issuing a tropical storm warning for the Florida Keys and advising Gulf Coast residents to stay alert.
Hurricane Rafael rapidly strengthening – now packing 100mph winds with eye forming on approach to western Cuba. Expected near major hurricane strength at landfall today. Florida Keys bracing for tropical storm conditions. Gulf Coast track uncertainty growing with possible… pic.twitter.com/jFBFiwQpH5
— Ryan Hall, Y’all (@ryanhallyall) November 6, 2024
Despite the unpredictability, there’s one clear takeaway: Rafael could strengthen further, potentially reaching Category 3 status, before making landfall. Bill Deger, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, noted that even small changes in Rafael’s intensity or wind direction could make a big difference in where it ends up. It’s a high-stakes situation for Gulf Coast residents who may see everything from heavy rain and flooding to tornadoes as early as this weekend.
5:10 pm, 11.6.24: Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba earlier today as a Category 3 storm, and has since weakened to Category 2. Rafael is expected to move westward toward Mexico. I will bring updates, in case it turns northward toward Texas. pic.twitter.com/JjI0StdWLK
— South Metro Weather (@sometweather) November 6, 2024
The NHC and The Weather Channel are warning that Rafael’s rain bands could bring gusty winds and even a few tornadoes to parts of southwestern Florida and the Keys. For Floridians still reeling from the double-hit of Hurricanes Helene and Milton earlier this season, this storm is a reminder of how quickly conditions can shift. With combined losses exceeding $4 billion in Florida, residents and insurance companies alike are hoping Rafael stays on a less destructive course.
Even though November hurricanes are rare—only four have made U.S. landfall since 1851, according to NOAA—this storm is part of a troubling trend. Warmer ocean temperatures, largely attributed to climate change, are fueling more rapid intensification of storms in the Atlantic. Rafael is the ninth storm this season to intensify quickly, echoing similar behavior seen in previous storms as the Atlantic basin heats up.
While Rafael’s final destination is still up in the air, Gulf Coast residents are advised to secure outdoor objects, monitor updates, and brace for possible landfall. As the strongest November storm in the northwestern Caribbean since 2009, Rafael underscores the unpredictability and power of late-season hurricanes, a phenomenon becoming more common with shifting climate patterns.
