A new statewide poll shows U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) trailing significantly in potential matchups for the upcoming Texas Senate race. The online survey, conducted by Democrat-leaning firm Change Research, tested Crockett’s chances against two high-profile Republican figures — Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Senator John Cornyn.
In both head-to-head matchups, Crockett fell behind by eight percentage points. She earned 42 percent support to Paxton’s 50 percent, and 41 percent against Cornyn’s 49 percent. The results put her well outside the poll’s margin of error, which is three percent, making it clear she has a tough road ahead if she chooses to officially enter the race.
Crockett’s favorability numbers may be playing a role in the early polling gap. The survey found only 33 percent of voters viewed her favorably, compared to 40 percent who said they had an unfavorable opinion. That leaves her with a net favorability of minus seven — not an ideal place to start a statewide campaign.
TEXAS POLL – SENATE
🟥 Ken Paxton: 50%
🟦 Jasmine Crockett: 42%
—
🟥 John Cornyn: 49%
🟦 Jasmine Crockett: 41%
——
TX Senate Generic Ballot🟥 Republican: 50%
🟦 Democrat: 41%
——@ChangePolls | 11/20-26 | 1,109 RVhttps://t.co/q01tvxQQVa pic.twitter.com/JDjKro1RaR— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) December 2, 2025
Other possible Democratic contenders, including former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred and Texas State Rep. James Talarico, scored better among voters who know them. Talarico, who made headlines in the past for his comment that “God is nonbinary,” has the highest net favorability among the Democrats polled, coming in at +25 percentage points.
However, the poll did not include general election matchups between Talarico or Allred and Republican candidates, so it remains unclear how they would perform head-to-head against Paxton or Cornyn.
One of the most striking findings from the poll was the number of voters who said they would “definitely not” vote for certain candidates. Crockett led that category, with 49 percent of respondents saying they would never support her. That’s the highest of any candidate from either party.
By comparison, 44 percent said they would not vote for Cornyn, and 43 percent said the same for Paxton. For Allred and Talarico, 43 percent and 40 percent of respondents respectively said they would never vote for them — possibly reflecting a lower profile among the general public.
Although Crockett has not officially launched a Senate campaign, she has hinted in recent weeks that she is leaning toward entering the race. She remains a well-known voice in the Democratic Party and has a strong following among its most active voters.
Another poll from the University of Houston supports her popularity within the Democratic base. In that survey, Crockett led the field with 31 percent support in a hypothetical Democratic primary. Beto O’Rourke and Talarico followed with 25 percent each, while Allred trailed with 13 percent.
Despite her strong standing among Democrats, the new Change Research poll suggests Crockett may face an uphill battle in a statewide race. Texas remains a Republican-leaning state, and GOP candidates like Paxton and Cornyn have high name recognition and established political support.
The Republican primary is also shaping up to be competitive. Paxton is seen as the early favorite, but Rep. Wesley Hunt entered the race in October, which could change the dynamics in the coming months.
However, voters can expect more polling and shifting numbers. For now, the early data shows that any Democrat looking to flip a Texas Senate seat will need to overcome not only strong Republican opponents but also high voter skepticism.
