A highly active undersea volcano located nearly a mile beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean could erupt before the end of 2025, according to scientists monitoring the site. Known as Axial Seamount, the volcano sits about 700 miles northwest of San Francisco and was first discovered in the 1980s. Since then, it has erupted three times—once in 1998, again in 2011, and most recently in 2015.
Axial Seamount is situated in the northeastern Pacific Ocean on a ridge where the Juan de Fuca and Pacific tectonic plates are pulling apart. The volcano also lies above a geological hot spot, which contributes to its regular eruptive activity. These unique geological features have made it the most closely monitored underwater volcano in the world.
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The Axial Seamount, a massive underwater volcano 300 miles off Oregon’s coast, is primed for an explosive eruption, potentially before the end of 2025.
Deep beneath the Pacific Ocean
Axial Seamount… pic.twitter.com/6vNnD0s61e— Geology Bits of Knowledge (@geologyBits) May 17, 2025
Scientists emphasize that eruptions at Axial Seamount do not pose a tsunami risk to residents along the coasts of California, Oregon, or Washington. The volcano’s eruptions are not explosive. Instead, it releases lava in a relatively gentle flow, similar to volcanic activity seen in Hawaii or Iceland. Because the lava is fluid and contains little gas, it does not erupt with force. According to researchers, this distinguishes Axial from other well-known explosive volcanoes such as Mt. St. Helens or Crater Lake.
When an eruption occurs, lava flows from the seafloor. The outer layer of the lava cools rapidly and hardens into a crust, while the interior remains hot. These events typically go unnoticed by people on land but can have significant impacts on the underwater environment. Heat plumes may rise from the eruption site but will not reach the ocean surface. Sea creatures close to the eruption site may be affected, and scientific instruments placed near the volcano could be damaged or destroyed.
Axial Seamount’s activity is being tracked closely by researchers like Bill Chadwick from Oregon State University and Scott Nooner from the University of North Carolina at Wilmington. The pair have studied the volcano for decades and were able to predict the 2015 eruption months in advance. Their prediction was based on careful monitoring of the seafloor, which showed a clear pattern of inflation—meaning the seafloor was rising due to magma filling underground chambers. During an eruption, the seafloor deflates as the magma is released.
Using this same method, Chadwick and Nooner issued a prediction in July 2024 that Axial Seamount could erupt by the end of 2025. After a pause in inflation during 2023, the seafloor began rising again in late 2023 and has continued at a steady pace throughout 2024. However, researchers note that seismic activity, such as small earthquakes, has not yet reached levels seen before the 2015 eruption.
Though the prediction remains in place, Chadwick has emphasized that it is experimental. He acknowledged the uncertainty during a presentation in November, and he has opted to make the forecast public to promote scientific transparency. Since the volcano does not threaten human life or infrastructure, researchers are using it as an opportunity to refine forecasting techniques that might one day be applied to more dangerous volcanoes around the world.
The volcano’s location makes direct observation of eruptions difficult. Scientists are alerted to volcanic activity through the Ocean Observatories Initiative Regional Cabled Array, a network of sensors operated by the University of Washington. While this system can detect eruptions in near real-time, capturing video footage of an eruption remains a challenge. Expeditions to the site require specialized ships and remotely operated vehicles, which are often booked well in advance.
Welcome to the party Axial Seamount. https://t.co/EJKPvLQP86
— Marshmallow (@ashlie_1111) May 13, 2025
Chadwick’s last visit to Axial Seamount was in 2024, and his next scheduled expedition is in 2026. If the volcano erupts within the predicted window, researchers may not be present during the event. However, data collected by the sensor network and post-eruption surveys will help improve understanding of undersea volcanism and could contribute to better eruption forecasting in the future.
